The Wild Ride Ahead: A Primer for the 2024 Election

By this time next summer both the Democratic and Republican political parties will be preparing to go full bore into the campaigns for the November 2024 Election.

At this stage it appears that the United States will see a rematch between the incumbent 46th president, Joe Biden, and the former 45th president, Donald Trump. Yet we are still a long way from that matchup taking place, if it even shapes up.

What is shaping up at this point however is that the American people have shifted to the right in many of their political views in the last couple of years.

According to the Gallup’s annual Values and Beliefs survey that was conducted in May: 

“More Americans this year (38%) say they are very conservative or conservative on social issues than said so in 2022 (33%) and 2021 (30%). 

“At the same time, the percentage saying their social views are very liberal or liberal has dipped to 29% from 34% in each of the past two years, while the portion identifying as moderate (31%) remains near a third.”

Broken down by party affiliation, 74% of Republicans called themselves conservative and only 6% said their social views were liberal.

Inversely, 62% of Democrats called themselves liberal and only 10% identified their social views on conservative. 

A larger percentage of Democrats (27%) said they were moderate on social issues than Republicans (18%), while Independent voters, as they typically do, are flocking to the center of this ideological divide.   

On social issues, 46% of Independents called themselves moderated compared to 29% of Independents who said they were conservative and 23% who say they are liberal on social matters.

On economic issues, the Gallup survey also found: 

“When Americans are asked to describe their views on economic issues, 44% identify as very conservative or conservative, 33% moderate and 21% very liberal or liberal.

“The percentage saying they are conservative averaged 40% between 2020 and 2022. The current figure is the highest since 46% in 2012.”

Yet even as Americans are leaning slightly more conservative in their political views, they aren't wild about the Republican Party.  But they’re not crazy about the Democratic Party either.  This is a big problem for both major political party.

A survey on political party affiliation conducted earlier this year by Gallup revealed that only 25% of voters declare they are Republicans, while 25% also say they are Democrats.  This is offset by the 49% of Americans who now say they are Independent. 

While these findings might not mean much in California’s upcoming elections, as voters here are solidly liberal in leaning and Democratic in voting, these surveys help explain why election results nationally don’t often reflect the outcomes seen in the Golden State.

It also creates a conundrum for both the Democratic and Republican Parties at the national level going into the 2024 Elections.  While the bases and activists of both major parties are r solid liberal and conservative respectively, the American people are not as ideological.

Whichever presidential candidate each party nominates that can secure the base of their party and then can appeal as a moderate to the Independents holding the center ground of American politics will likely win. 

But how does one secure an highly ideological base and then successful court the middle? That’s where the art of politicking comes into play. 

Regardless of one’s political inclinations, this will be a fascinating one to watch.  And don’t be surprised if find yourself surprised at many turns along the campaign trail, especially if it’s a partisan spoiler or third party candidate.

Whoever said that politics is boring, certainly hasn’t been watching what’s been going on in American these past six years!

Brian Floyd is an author, historian, and political strategist who frequently contributes commentary to the Blade.