What is Going on with Union Membership in America?

In January the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its annual report on union membership in the country. The data in the report for 2022, contained good and bad news for organized labor in America.

The positive news for labor was that since 2021, the number of wage and salary employees who were members of unions increased 1.9%. The report also states employees who were union members on average earned 15% more than non-unionized employees.  The difference in the actual pay was $1,216 per week versus $1,029 per week.

The negative news for labor was that union membership as a whole across America declined to 10.1% from 10.3% in 2021. This marks an all-time low for union membership in the United States America, even as overall membership grew.

What might explain this apparent contradiction?

It appears that while there were 273,000 new union members last year nationwide, there were 5.3 million new wage and salary employees who were not members of unions. That means for nearly every 3 new employees who joined a union, 53 new employees are not represented.

Another piece of the explanation may be internal state-to-state migration. In 2021, the states of Florida, Idaho, South Carolina, Texas, and South Dakota saw significant population growth.  At the same time New York, Illinois, Louisiana, West Virginia, and Hawaii experienced a decrease in population.

Those five states with the highest year over year population growth are all right to work states, whereas of the five states that saw the biggest population declines, only Louisiana and West Virginia are right to work.

While some may attempt to make the case that workers are moving to escape unions, that is a correlation that should not be made.

The biggest driver of population migration is most likely cost of living.  People are looking to live in places where their dollar goes further.  Especially in a time of inflation that hasn’t been experienced in about four decades. This is where state and local tax rates might figure into these population shifts.

New York, Illinois, and Hawaii have some of the highest taxes in the country, while South Carolina, Texas, and South Dakota have amongst the lowest taxes. Louisiana and West Virginia appear to have taken notice of this. In 2021, Louisiana reformed its state tax code, cutting taxes on both individuals and corporations.  West Virginia Governor Jim Justice is proposing to cut his state’s top income tax in half over the next three years.

According to the Tax Foundation, amongst the 50 states, Alaska has the lowest state and local tax burden, New York the highest, Florida the 11th lowest, and California the 4th highest.

If the high cost of living is driving emigration from California, therefore contributing to the state’s budget deficit (which is already $7 billion higher than the $22.5 billion originally projected) and declining overall labor union participation, this might be something that grabs  the attention Governor Newsom and the State Legislature.  At first blush such a notion might seem like a non-starter.  But as Sean Connery taught us all, it is wise to “never say never.”

After all, if only Richard Nixon could go to China and only Bill Clinton could end welfare as we know it, perhaps Gavin Newsom will be the governor who reforms California’s erratic tax code.  Such an effort might not only be good for California’s competitiveness nationwide, but for his presidential ambitions, and for his supporters in organized labor as well.

Brian Floyd is an author, historian, and political strategist who frequently contributes commentary to the Blade.